A fuzzy reed-frost model for epidemic spreading.

نویسندگان

  • Neli R S Ortega
  • Fabiano S Santos
  • Dirce M T Zanetta
  • Eduardo Massad
چکیده

In this paper, we present a fuzzy approach to the Reed-Frost model for epidemic spreading taking into account uncertainties in the diagnostic of the infection. The heterogeneities in the infected group is based on the clinical signals of the individuals (symptoms, laboratorial exams, medical findings, etc.), which are incorporated into the dynamic of the epidemic. The infectivity level is time-varying and the classification of the individuals is performed through fuzzy relations. Simulations considering a real problem with data of the viral epidemic in a children daycare are performed and the results are compared with a stochastic Reed-Frost generalization.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Multiple Randomised Reed-Frost Epidemics and Epidemics upon Random Graphs

We consider a multitype epidemic model which is a natural extension of the randomised Reed-Frost epidemic model. The main result is the derivation of an asympotic Gaussian limit theorem for the final size of the epidemic. The method of proof is simpler, and more direct, than is used for similar results elsewhere in the epidemics literature. In particular, the results are specialised to epidemic...

متن کامل

Multitype Randomized Reed–frost Epidemics and Epidemics upon Random Graphs

We consider a multitype epidemic model which is a natural extension of the randomized Reed–Frost epidemic model. The main result is the derivation of an asymptotic Gaussian limit theorem for the final size of the epidemic. The method of proof is simpler, and more direct, than is used for similar results elsewhere in the epidemics literature. In particular, the results are specialized to epidemi...

متن کامل

Approximating the Reed – Frost epidemic process †

The paper is concerned with refining two well known approximations to the Reed–Frost epidemic process. The first is the branching process approximation in the early stages of the epidemic; we extend its range of validity, and sharpen the estimates of the error incurred. The second is the normal approximation to the distribution of the final size of a large epidemic, which we complement with a d...

متن کامل

Epidemics on social network graphs

This work is concerned with relaxing the assumption of homogeneous mixing in a Reed-Frost epidemic model. After a thorough presentation of the standard Reed-Frost model we introduce social structure in the population by aid of a social network graph and investigate the effects on the epidemic spread. A number of possible choices for the underlying social network are presented: Bernoulli graphs,...

متن کامل

Nonstationarity and Randomization in the Reed–frost Epidemic Model

The purpose of this paper is to determine the exact distribution of the final size of an epidemic for a wide class of models of susceptible–infective–removed type. First, a nonstationary version of the classical Reed–Frost model is constructed that allows us to incorporate, in particular, random levels of resistance to infection in the susceptibles. Then, a randomized version of this nonstation...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:
  • Bulletin of mathematical biology

دوره 70 7  شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2008